Evan Bayh
Evan Bayh is a second generation Democrat politician and is as accomplished if not more so than anyone that could possibly be in the field. After serving two terms as governor of Indiana, Bayh was easily elected to two terms to the United States senate. Bayh would have easily been elected to a third term, but announced recently that he would not run for reelection. He has hinted at continuing public service in some other aspect. Bayh came close to running for president in 2008, so higher office is definitely something he wants. Evan Bayh could be a very smart strategic move if he were to replace Joe Biden on the ticket in 2012. Aside from being extremely gaffe prone, Biden will be 73 by the end of what would be Obama's second term, and unable to win the general were he to run. Evan Bayh will be 61 in 2016 and will have any/all experience that one could ask for in order to run for president. On the political spectrum, Bayh is fairly center-left. He's pro-choice and has a voting record that favors small businesses. He was also a staunch opponent to both of the Bush tax cuts. His criticisms were similar to John McCain's, in that they were not matched by spending cuts. He also saw this as an being detrimental to the middle class. Bayh also has a 13 million dollar war chest to use for his reelection (or in this situation, election). After announcing he would not run for senate, he had a few options. One option would be to refund the money to the donors. The second would be to keep it and spend it in accordance to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance laws. He also could have turned this money over to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. He opted to keep his money. This type of fundraising ability combined with Obama's already stellar fundraising capability would make them more difficult to beat. The typical theme has been for me to give the cons of a situation following the pros. However, I really don't see much downside to a move like this. Bayh seems to be a smart choice and I would be very surprised if this option isn't being considered by the Obama administration.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
2012 Part 3
Tim Pawlenty
Tim Pawlenty has been getting national attention since John McCain considered him for the VP slot in 2008. Pawlenty is finishing his second term as governor of Minnesota. He has announced that he will not seek a third term. This seems to be an obvious sign that he plans to pursue the presidency in 2012. For a governor late in their second term, Pawlenty's approval rating is pretty good. This experience at the executive level is sure to be one of his key assets in the upcoming campaign. Pawlenty was also elected at a time when his state was facing large budget shortfalls. He was able to balance the budget. This type of fiscal responsibility is likely to help him in a time of record deficits and ever expanding debt.
Pawlenty ran in 2002 on a George H.W. style campaign of "no new taxes." While he was able to balance the budget his first year, taxes were increased in several areas over the last few years. Pawlenty also comes off as a bit cheesy and hackish in his stump speeches. One example of this is when he said the public should act like Elin Woods and "smash the windows out of big government." Pawlenty is also avidly seeking the acceptance/endorsement of the tea-party. It is dangerous to do this since the tea party has no real ideological focus. Their actions are often unpredictable. Pawlenty seems as if he lacks some sort of intangible quality needed to ascend to the presidency. If the tea party movement continues to gain speed, he could be selected as a VP in order to sure up their support.
Tim Pawlenty has been getting national attention since John McCain considered him for the VP slot in 2008. Pawlenty is finishing his second term as governor of Minnesota. He has announced that he will not seek a third term. This seems to be an obvious sign that he plans to pursue the presidency in 2012. For a governor late in their second term, Pawlenty's approval rating is pretty good. This experience at the executive level is sure to be one of his key assets in the upcoming campaign. Pawlenty was also elected at a time when his state was facing large budget shortfalls. He was able to balance the budget. This type of fiscal responsibility is likely to help him in a time of record deficits and ever expanding debt.
Pawlenty ran in 2002 on a George H.W. style campaign of "no new taxes." While he was able to balance the budget his first year, taxes were increased in several areas over the last few years. Pawlenty also comes off as a bit cheesy and hackish in his stump speeches. One example of this is when he said the public should act like Elin Woods and "smash the windows out of big government." Pawlenty is also avidly seeking the acceptance/endorsement of the tea-party. It is dangerous to do this since the tea party has no real ideological focus. Their actions are often unpredictable. Pawlenty seems as if he lacks some sort of intangible quality needed to ascend to the presidency. If the tea party movement continues to gain speed, he could be selected as a VP in order to sure up their support.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
2012 Part 2
Mitt Romney
As the son of former Michigan governor George Romney, Mitt seems to be doing well in continuing the family business. Just as his father served as governor in the typically very blue state of Michigan, Mitt served as governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. This proves that he has the ability to put the northeast in play during the general election. Some of these states haven't voted Republican for president since Ronald Reagan carried 49 states in his 1984 reelection. Mitt was also able to mount the closest thing Ted Kennedy ever had to a tough reelection in 1994. Romney has a proven track record of being a good executive, be it of a state or in the private sector. Romney is a self made multi multi millionaire. His fortune was made from Romney's company that he co-founded, Bain Capitol. Romney also has a impressive education credentials. He has a law degree and and MBA, both of which were earned at Harvard. Romney is credited for having done a good job running the 2002 winter Olympics. This type of private sector experience makes him a very viable candidate to debate Obama on economic policy.
While he has many things going his way, Romney has a few potentially big problems both in the general and primary. Romney's positions on social issues have not been consistent. As a gubernatorial candidate, Romney was pro-choice. In the socially liberal northeast this is necessary for almost any candidate. During the 08 presidential campaign, Romney ran as a social conservative. This apparent flipflop could hurt him at any point during the 2012 campaign. An issue that could have a very significant impact, depending on how the message war goes, is what has come to be known as "Romneycare." As governor, Romney's signature policy achievement was universal healthcare for everyone is MA. This policy is actually more progessive than the healthcare reform recently passed by the Obama administration. While the bill accomplished a longtime liberal goal of health insurance for the vast majority people, the bill has done little to nothing to reduce the increasing costs of health care. Romney's Mormon faith could also come into play. While it could hurt him, another former Massachusetts politician (JFK) became the first ever Catholic president.
As the son of former Michigan governor George Romney, Mitt seems to be doing well in continuing the family business. Just as his father served as governor in the typically very blue state of Michigan, Mitt served as governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. This proves that he has the ability to put the northeast in play during the general election. Some of these states haven't voted Republican for president since Ronald Reagan carried 49 states in his 1984 reelection. Mitt was also able to mount the closest thing Ted Kennedy ever had to a tough reelection in 1994. Romney has a proven track record of being a good executive, be it of a state or in the private sector. Romney is a self made multi multi millionaire. His fortune was made from Romney's company that he co-founded, Bain Capitol. Romney also has a impressive education credentials. He has a law degree and and MBA, both of which were earned at Harvard. Romney is credited for having done a good job running the 2002 winter Olympics. This type of private sector experience makes him a very viable candidate to debate Obama on economic policy.
While he has many things going his way, Romney has a few potentially big problems both in the general and primary. Romney's positions on social issues have not been consistent. As a gubernatorial candidate, Romney was pro-choice. In the socially liberal northeast this is necessary for almost any candidate. During the 08 presidential campaign, Romney ran as a social conservative. This apparent flipflop could hurt him at any point during the 2012 campaign. An issue that could have a very significant impact, depending on how the message war goes, is what has come to be known as "Romneycare." As governor, Romney's signature policy achievement was universal healthcare for everyone is MA. This policy is actually more progessive than the healthcare reform recently passed by the Obama administration. While the bill accomplished a longtime liberal goal of health insurance for the vast majority people, the bill has done little to nothing to reduce the increasing costs of health care. Romney's Mormon faith could also come into play. While it could hurt him, another former Massachusetts politician (JFK) became the first ever Catholic president.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
2012 Election Part 1
The presidential election is over two years from now. However, potential candidates have been positioning themselves to run since before the 08 election in some cases. These are a few of the people that are likely to run, followed by some of their main strengths and weaknesses. The following is the first part of a multipart series presenting people who I'm sure you'll be sick and tired of hearing about by the time the election actually begins.
1. Newt Gingrich
From 1995 to 1999 Newt served as Speaker of the House of Representatives. He was largely responsible for the Republicans gaining control of congress in 1994. During his tenure, congress passed balanced budgets for the first time in many years. Newt has a Ph.D. He is a brilliant man that understands politics as well as having the ability to articulate policy. As an intellectual heavyweight he can debate ideas better than John McCain, who fell flat attempting to do so. Newt has also done a good job raising money and maintaining a public profile. American Solutions, a 527 started by Gingrich, has raised over 40 million dollars since 2006. This ability to raise resources would no doubt be one of his key assets in taking on Obama in '12.
On the other hand, Newt's track record does not show much in the way of being able to break the partisan logjam that currently consumes Washington. He is sometimes seen as a bit of a hot head that tends to be hyper-partisan at times. An issue that would be sure to resurface would be his personal life. Newt has been married three times. This includes him leaving his first wife for a woman with whom he was having an extramarital affair, while his first wife was recovering from a battle with cancer.
1. Newt Gingrich
From 1995 to 1999 Newt served as Speaker of the House of Representatives. He was largely responsible for the Republicans gaining control of congress in 1994. During his tenure, congress passed balanced budgets for the first time in many years. Newt has a Ph.D. He is a brilliant man that understands politics as well as having the ability to articulate policy. As an intellectual heavyweight he can debate ideas better than John McCain, who fell flat attempting to do so. Newt has also done a good job raising money and maintaining a public profile. American Solutions, a 527 started by Gingrich, has raised over 40 million dollars since 2006. This ability to raise resources would no doubt be one of his key assets in taking on Obama in '12.
On the other hand, Newt's track record does not show much in the way of being able to break the partisan logjam that currently consumes Washington. He is sometimes seen as a bit of a hot head that tends to be hyper-partisan at times. An issue that would be sure to resurface would be his personal life. Newt has been married three times. This includes him leaving his first wife for a woman with whom he was having an extramarital affair, while his first wife was recovering from a battle with cancer.
Monday, May 24, 2010
My case for immigration reform.
Ok, so I was having some trouble coming up with a general theme for this blog. I didn't want it to turn into a recap of my day to day activities because that's really boring. I decided to give it a shot with a political theme. This could consist of an idea I have to fix a particular problem, or I could just rant about politicians I can't stand. If you have a critique, please share it.
Immigration is an issue in which the status quo will simply no longer work. It has not worked in the past and will only become worse in years to come. The failure to act by the federal government has led to a massive population of illegal immigrants in the United States. It has also led to misguided and incomplete immigration responses at the state level. The recent Arizona law is an example of this. On the other side, you have illegal sanctuary cities. It's hard to find an elected official or anyone else for that matter that wouldn't agree that something has to be done. Where the agreement stops is on specific policy measures on how to fix this problem. You have some on the hard right that want to be isolationists. You have some on the hard left that want completely open borders. Neither one of these solutions is desirable. To those on the right, the United States is a nation founded by immigrants. The rich cultural diversity is one of the greatest things about this country. It is also one of the main reasons why the United States is the global economic leader. To those on the left, borer security is a national security issue. The fact is that there is a brutal drug war going on along our southern border. We must secure our border, and control who is allowed to enter the country.
I believe my solution is a practical, sustainable response to the valid concerns on both sides. The process to become a legal American citizen must be made easier. This will both bring in more tax revenue and remove incentive to enter illegally. This takes care of the majority of those that want to enter the country with good intentions. That being said, there are those who want to smuggle drugs over the border, and terrorists that would like to be able to enter to hurt innocent people. Border security has to be increased through an increase in border agents, building the wall in places, and using technology like smartgrids in others. This type of increase will cost money, and has to be paid for somehow. I propose that newly naturalized citizens pay a slightly higher than normal tax in order to fund these increases. Increased border security like the above mentioned has been scored by the congressional budget office in 2006. According to the CBO analysis, this would cost 9.6 billion dollars over the first five years. If we naturalize 1.1 million citizens a year over the first five years (a very modest increase over recent numbers), this averages out to about 1800 dollars per citizen. This is not an overwhelming burdon, it's also not permanent. This plan would also call for increased audits on workplaces to check for hiring illegal workers. There would be very stiff penalties for each illegal immigrant hired.
So there's my idea in a nutshell. Please share any opinions.
Immigration is an issue in which the status quo will simply no longer work. It has not worked in the past and will only become worse in years to come. The failure to act by the federal government has led to a massive population of illegal immigrants in the United States. It has also led to misguided and incomplete immigration responses at the state level. The recent Arizona law is an example of this. On the other side, you have illegal sanctuary cities. It's hard to find an elected official or anyone else for that matter that wouldn't agree that something has to be done. Where the agreement stops is on specific policy measures on how to fix this problem. You have some on the hard right that want to be isolationists. You have some on the hard left that want completely open borders. Neither one of these solutions is desirable. To those on the right, the United States is a nation founded by immigrants. The rich cultural diversity is one of the greatest things about this country. It is also one of the main reasons why the United States is the global economic leader. To those on the left, borer security is a national security issue. The fact is that there is a brutal drug war going on along our southern border. We must secure our border, and control who is allowed to enter the country.
I believe my solution is a practical, sustainable response to the valid concerns on both sides. The process to become a legal American citizen must be made easier. This will both bring in more tax revenue and remove incentive to enter illegally. This takes care of the majority of those that want to enter the country with good intentions. That being said, there are those who want to smuggle drugs over the border, and terrorists that would like to be able to enter to hurt innocent people. Border security has to be increased through an increase in border agents, building the wall in places, and using technology like smartgrids in others. This type of increase will cost money, and has to be paid for somehow. I propose that newly naturalized citizens pay a slightly higher than normal tax in order to fund these increases. Increased border security like the above mentioned has been scored by the congressional budget office in 2006. According to the CBO analysis, this would cost 9.6 billion dollars over the first five years. If we naturalize 1.1 million citizens a year over the first five years (a very modest increase over recent numbers), this averages out to about 1800 dollars per citizen. This is not an overwhelming burdon, it's also not permanent. This plan would also call for increased audits on workplaces to check for hiring illegal workers. There would be very stiff penalties for each illegal immigrant hired.
So there's my idea in a nutshell. Please share any opinions.
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